Transparency

Every data source, every correlation rule, every confidence score. Nothing hidden.

How Strike Confirmation Works

No single source can confirm a strike. CeaseFire Watch cross-correlates 17 independent data feeds to build confidence. Each FIRMS thermal detection is used as an anchor point (50+ MW = 3 pts, 15-50 MW = 2 pts). The fusion engine checks whether other sources detected something within 25km and 6 hours. Each corroborating source adds points to a confidence score. For Israeli territory, missile warnings from Pikud HaOref are the strongest single corroboration signal (+4 pts). Certain source pairings (NOTAM then heat, SAR + FIRMS, BGP + OONI blackout) trigger bonus cross-correlation scores.

CONFIRMED

5-7

HIGH

3-4

MODERATE

1-2

POSSIBLE

Scoring Rules

Source	Points	Condition
FIRMS 50+ MW	+3	Anchor event - high-intensity thermal detection
FIRMS 15-50 MW	+2	Lower intensity - creates low-confidence assessment alone, upgrades with corroboration
Red Alert (missile)	+4	Israeli missile/rocket warning within 30 min of FIRMS event in Israel
Red Alert (other)	+2	Non-missile Israeli warning (UAV, infiltration) within 30 min of FIRMS event
ACLED match	+4	Access denied - will re-enable if granted (currently scores 0)
Internet outage	+3	Country-level internet blackout
Shallow earthquake	+2	< 10km depth in conflict zone
Military aircraft	+2	Within 75km of thermal event
Elevated NO2	+2	Post-combustion atmospheric signature
GPS Jamming	+2	Active GPS interference zone overlapping thermal event
BGP drop	+2	Network route withdrawal in same country (Palestinian + Israeli ISPs monitored)
Active NOTAM	+2	Airspace restriction within 150km of thermal event
OONI censorship spike	+2	High anomaly rate in same country
Aviation diversion	+3	Civil aircraft actively avoiding the zone
Maritime anomaly	+2	Shipping lane disruption near thermal event
NOTAM then heat	+3	Cross-correlation bonus: airspace closed, then thermal detected within validity window
BGP + OONI blackout	+3	Cross-correlation bonus: network route withdrawal + censorship spike in same country
SAR destruction	+3	Sentinel-1 backscatter drop > 3dB - building or structure destroyed between revisits
SAR disturbance	+2	Sentinel-1 ground disturbance (earthworks, debris, new fortification)
SAR + FIRMS joint	+4	Cross-correlation bonus: SAR structural destruction + thermal signature at same location
Local GPU destruction	+3	Building-level destruction detected by local GPU pipeline (ChangeFormer/SAM)
Local GPU disturbance	+2	Ground disturbance or burn scar from local GPU optical analysis
Local GPU + FIRMS joint	+4	Cross-correlation bonus: local satellite destruction + thermal signature at same location
GPS + aviation diversion	+2	Cross-correlation bonus: GPS jamming zone overlapping with civil flight rerouting
Nighttime bonus	+1	Military operations often occur at night

Data Sources

NASA FIRMS

Thermal satellite

VIIRS instrument on NOAA-20 detects Fire Radiative Power (FRP). Higher MW = more intense thermal event. 50+ MW flagged as strike candidate.

~3 hoursAPI key (free)

ACLED

Ground-verified conflict

Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. Access denied - platform operates without it using sensor-first architecture. Raising funds to pay for API access.

~24 hoursAccess denied

USGS Earthquakes

Seismic detection

ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog. Shallow seismic events (< 10km depth) in non-tectonic conflict zones can indicate large explosions.

~5 minutesNone (public)

IODA

Internet connectivity

Internet Outage Detection and Analysis (Georgia Tech). Monitors BGP routing and active probing for Palestinian and Israeli networks.

~5 minutesNone (public)

airplanes.live

ADS-B flight tracking

Crowdsourced ADS-B data. Military aircraft identified by type code and callsign. Presence near thermal events increases strike confidence.

Real-timeNone (public)

Sentinel-5P TROPOMI

Atmospheric chemistry

NO2 tropospheric column density from the Sentinel-5P satellite. Elevated NO2 over conflict zones indicates combustion from explosions or fires.

~24 hoursOAuth (Copernicus)

GDELT

Global media monitoring

Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone. Monitors 100+ languages for conflict reporting with tone analysis.

15-30 minutesNone (public)

Pikud HaOref (Red Alert)

Missile warning system

Israel Home Front Command. Missile alerts scored directly in the fusion engine (+4 pts) - the strongest single corroboration signal.

Real-time (10s)None (public)

Cloudflare Radar

Internet traffic anomalies

Per-country internet traffic anomaly detection. More granular than IODA for detecting targeted infrastructure attacks.

~5 minutesOptional

GPSJam / GNSS

GPS jamming detection

Detects GPS/GNSS interference zones from crowdsourced ADS-B data. GPS jamming is a common pre-strike signature.

~15 minutesNone (public)

RIPE RIS / BGP

Network route analysis

BGP route visibility via RIPE RIS. Monitors Palestinian telecoms and Israeli ISPs (HOT, Bezeq, Cellcom).

~5 minutesNone (public)

FAA / ICAO NOTAMs

Airspace restrictions

Notices to Air Missions. Airspace closures near thermal events are strong indicators of military operations.

~15 minutesNone (public)

OONI Probe

Internet censorship

Open Observatory of Network Interference. High anomaly rates correlate with information blackouts during operations.

~1 hourNone (public)

Aviation Diversions

Flight path analysis

Detects civil aviation diverting around conflict zones. Airlines receive classified intelligence briefings before media.

~5 minutesDerived from ADS-B

Maritime AIS

Shipping lane monitoring

AIS vessel tracking. Monitors shipping lane disruptions near conflict zones indicating active maritime threats.

~15 minutesNone (public)

Sentinel-1 SAR

Radar change detection

Synthetic aperture radar from ESA Sentinel-1. Works through clouds, darkness, and smoke. Compares backscatter between revisits to detect building destruction, new earthworks, and ground disturbance at sub-meter precision.

12-day revisitOAuth (Copernicus)

Local GPU Satellite Analysis

Building-level damage detection

High-resolution change detection processed on a local RTX 5000 workstation. Sentinel-1 SAR (ChangeFormer) and Sentinel-2 optical (dNBR burn mapping) at 512x512 resolution with connected-component clustering. Each event gets pre-generated AI intelligence text from a local LLM (Ollama qwen2.5:7b/phi4:14b). Results pushed to a VPS relay for zero-latency display on the dashboard.

Daily (03:00 AWST)Copernicus + local GPU

Limitations

Satellite timing. VIIRS passes over each location roughly twice per day. Strikes between passes are missed by thermal detection.
Precision munitions. Modern guided weapons create brief, low-FRP thermal signatures that satellites often cannot detect. Small arms and artillery are invisible to FIRMS.
No ACLED. ACLED requires a paid API subscription. The platform currently operates on sensor-derived data only, which means no human-coded ground reports.
False positives. Industrial fires, agricultural burns, and natural events can produce thermal signatures. The scoring system mitigates but does not eliminate this.
Cloud cover. TROPOMI NO2 and VIIRS thermal require clear skies. Sentinel-1 SAR works through clouds but has a 12-day revisit cycle, so rapid changes between passes are missed.

INDEPENDENT

Keep this monitor running

CeaseFire Watch is funded entirely by individuals. No government funding. No political sponsors. No ads. Your contributions pay for API access (ACLED, satellite data), hosting, and the engineering time to add new data sources and maintain the platform.

100% of funds go to infrastructure and data access. This project has no commercial interest.

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